I'm taking a poll: On a scale of 1 to 10, how hopeful are you feeling about 2023?
We’ve seen A TON of headlines talking about recessions, layoffs, and market fears over the past few weeks. And many experts are sharing what they think we should be doing to stave off the worst.
It’s prudent to plan ahead and reef the sails before a storm strikes.
But are we going overboard? Are we being TOO negative?
It's a normal human reaction to try to foresee and prepare for the worst.
But I think that can sometimes lead us to act as though the worst-case scenario is a foregone conclusion.
What if we're not making enough room for good things to happen?
While the risk of a recession next year is real, it's not a given — it’s a prediction.
The Wall Street Journal survey of economists puts the risk of a recession within 12 months at 63%.1
On the other hand, Goldman Sachs puts the probability of a 2023 recession at just 35%.2
No one knows what will happen for certain but it doesn't look like a recession is just around the corner.
Recent layoffs are getting big headlines, but they aren’t widespread.3
Afterall, for the last 18 months unemployment has been at it's lowest average in decades.
In fact, there's still a chance that we could avoid a recession or experience only a mild downturn.
Especially if inflation has truly peaked. (Fingers crossed!)
There are likely to be stormy waters ahead, especially for employees affected by layoffs, but as we enter the final weeks of the year, I want to highlight some signs of hope:
Hopeful sign #1: The latest data shows that the U.S. economy grew nearly 2.9% in the third quarter.4
Hopeful sign #2: Economists think the economy will grow again in the fourth quarter as well.
Hopeful sign #3: The Fed might slow down the pace of interest rate hikes soon.5
It’s true, we're still in challenging conditions as we approach 2023.
More volatility is very likely in store for us.
But let's make room for optimism and positivity.
Good things are in store as well.
Before I go, I wanted to highlight a few more bits of good news from 2022:
- We learned that U.S. child poverty plummeted 80% between 1993 and 2021.6
- Scientists discovered a way to help identify babies at risk for sudden infant death syndrome.7
- Voters elected the first Gen Z member of Congress.8
- A record number of sea turtles laid nests on the Georgia coast.9
P.S. Check out these fascinating insights on life from the world’s longest study on happiness. What do you think the key is?
Sources
1. https://www.wsj.com/articles/economists-now-expect-a-recession-job-losses-by-next-year-11665859869
2. https://www.cnn.com/2022/10/24/economy/goldman-sachs-accidental-recession-warning/index.html/a>
5. https://www.cnn.com/2022/11/30/economy/jerome-powell-speech-economy
6. https://www.porh.psu.edu/child-poverty-drops/
8. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/11/09/maxwell-frost-will-be-the-first-gen-z-member-of-congress.html
9. https://www.wjcl.com/article/georgia-loggerhead-sea-turtle-nests/40833391
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